Obama's big blunder

Much of the talk after the completion of the Republican National Convention last night has been of VP nominee Sarah Palin's impressive speech and about the fact that is presidential race appears to neck and neck heading into the last two months.  It is truly remarkable that this race is so close.  Given poor approval ratings for the GOP, and in particular George W. Bush, the democrats had a huge advantage going into this presidential contest.  Unfortunately for them that advantage has been almost completely squandered by extremely poor strategic decisions by Obama campaign.

Approximately two months ago, shortly after Obama officially wrapped the nomination, the McCain campaign launched a series of ads calling into question Senator Obama's experience and leadership capabilities.  They followed this up with a couple ads mocking his cult like following and his "celebrity" status.  Essentially, the McCain camp has spent the last two months driving home themes brought out in these ads.  This strategy has been extremely effective and over the last two months the polls have been trending in McCain's favor.  One of the reason's this strategy has been effective is the Obama camp's misguided strategic response.  Senator Obama has spent the last two months trying to answer the questions raised by the McCain campaign about Obama's leadership, experience, and qualifications.  Intuitively, one might think this is a reasonable strategy but in Obama's case he walked right into a trap.

In response to the McCain camp's ads and attacks, Senator Obama organized a highly publicized trip to the middle east and Europe.  The trip produced several wonderful photo ops for Obama and the international media swooned all over him.  Many pundits said that the trip was a smashing success and showed McCain had over played his hand when he goaded Obama into visiting Iraq.  Unfortunately the pundits they completely missed the point, evidenced by the fact that Obama's trip had absolutely no effect on the polls.

By taking this extremely hyped trip to the middle East and Europe, Obama simply reinforced the McCain campaign's emphasis on international affairs and national security (where McCain has natural advantage).  It also allowed the McCain campaign to continue, without interruption, to compare and contrast Obama's record on national security and international affairs (or lack thereof) with Senator McCain's rather extensive record.

Since Obama's international trip, the Obama campaign has continuously allowed him to be lulled into debates about experience, international affairs, and national security.  Some of this is unavoidable.  Obama certainly can't control whether or not Russia decides to make headlines by invading Georgia, but the Obama campaign has been incapable of changing the subject even when the opportunity presents itself.  Even Obama's selection of VP seemed to reenforce the McCain's criticisms of Obama.  When Obama announced the selection of Joe Biden, he specifically highlighted his experience and foreign policy expertise.  This move indirectly highlighted the lack those qualifications in Obama's own resume.  In addition, it undermined the "change" theme that Obama had built his whole campaign around.

Just this last week the Obama campaign was again lulled into a trap by the McCain camp after the selection of Governor Sarah Palin.  Foolishly, the Obama camp criticized Governor Palin's experience and foreign policy expertise.  All this accomplished was flooding the news cycle with stories about the Obama campaign attacking Palin's experience and then the McCain campaign returning fire by highlighting Obama's flimsy record.  Every minute the Obama campaign spends comparing Sarah Palin's experience as a small town mayor with Obama's experience as a state senator, is a victory for McCain because Obama isn't running against Palin, he's running against McCain.  The fact is the more Obama talks about his relatively humble resume the better McCain looks to voters.

Just today, Obama appears to be doubling down on this horrible strategy.  At rally today he asked McCain, "where have you been the last 26 years?"  This line is referring to McCain's 26 years in congress and suggesting that McCain is just now "talking about reform".  This may be the most extremely foolish line of attack the Obama campaign has yet attempted because sets McCain up to respond by listing all of the reforms that McCain his authored or championed in congress (campaign finance reform, earkmark reform, immigration reform, etc...).  It also gives the McCain campaign one more chance to compare his record with Obama's record.

The sad thing for Obama supporters is that this whole misguided approach is completely avoidable.  All Obama has to do is concede the experience/foreign policy issue to McCain and shift the focus to other issues.  I'm not suggesting he come out and say, "Senator McCain would make a better commander in chief than me."  I'm saying that Obama can subtly acknowledge that McCain has an advantage in one area of this race while shifting the focus to the areas where the advantage seems to lie with Obama.  I would advise that Obama say something to this affect, "Senator McCain has lived a remarkable life and has acquired a great deal of valuable experience throughout his career.  In fact, I believe he would make a good commander in chief.  Unfortunately though Senator McCain is wrong on so many issues that are important to the citizens of this country I do not believe he would make a very good president."  Obama should then finish this statement by mentioning one particular issue he is "right" on and McCain is "wrong".  If I were Obama I would offer a similar type of response every time the McCain camp tries to bring up the issue of experience or qualifications.  Overall, if he makes a concerted effort to focus the race back on domestic issues he can shift the momentum back in his favor.

The fact is, no matter how hard he tries or much he spins, Obama will never measure up to Senator McCain in terms of experience and qualifications.  Senator McCain has one of the most impressive biographies of anyone serving in public office today.  He is one of the most respected politicians in the country, regardless of party.  Obama simply cannot compete with this and should not try.  Ultimately you can never win any competition if you are matching your weaknesses against your opponent's strengths.